Gonzaga (26-6, 12-2) is a lock to get in the NCAA Tournament despite not winning their conference tournament.
Joining them is Purdue, Michigan State and Wisconsin out of the Big 10; Vanderbilt and Tennessee out of the SEC; Syracuse, Villanova, Pittsburgh, Marquette, Louisville, Notre Dame and Georgetown out of the Big East; New Mexico, Brigham Young and UNLV out of the MWC; Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Missouri, Texas and Oklahoma State out of the Big 12; Maryland, Florida State, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech out of the ACC; Xavier and Richmond out of the Atlantic 10.
Conference Champs Sweat it Out
Both UTEP (26-6, 15-1) and California (23-10, 13-5) should make it based on conference success alone despite losing in their tournament finals. The Bears willingness to go anywhere in the preseason should not be forgotten while the Miners gaudy one-loss conference record should get them in.
UTEP had won 16 in a row before falling to Houston in the Conference USA Championship. A soft non-conference schedule hurts the Miners chances while Cal struggled against the nation's elite in non-conference competition. Regardless both bodies of work should be enough to earn an at-large berth.
Two more off the bubble makes 30.
Off the Bubble
Teams who were on the bubble that probably would not have made the NCAA Tournament had they not won their conference tournaments are Murray State (30-4, 17-1), Northern Iowa (28-4, 15-3), Old Dominion (26-8, 15-3), Siena (27-6, 17-1) and Saint Mary's (26-5, 11-3). Twenty six other teams won bids including the MAC's 9 seed Ohio (21-14, 7-9), the WAC's New Mexico State (22-11, 11-5), and C-USA's 7 seed Houston (19-15, 7-9) who stole a bid.
Committee Examines Various Variables
To determine the final four teams in the tournament, the Selection Committee will decide which teams get in based on their whole body of work, which encompasses but is not limited to who they've beaten, who they've lost to and who they've played. Other determining factors will be overall record, road/neutral site record and home record. It's not an easy task. A lot goes into it.
"The committee tells you they look at teams, not conferences," West Coast Conference Commissioner Jamie Zachinovich said. "But never underestimate the human element."
It's also been said that the committee no longer considers how a team fares in their final 10 games, which had been in the criteria a few years back. Instead they look at the first, second and third parts equally or so they say.
The committee looks at the whole season under a microscope with a magnifying lens. They rate how a team performed when they were healthy and when a player was out, how did the team handle adversity.
They look at the raw numbers, not (necessarily) the names of the schools when making their final calibrations of who will be among the 65 entrants in the NCAA Tournament and who will be disappointed. Seeding and regional alignments also play a factor in making the final determinations.
Bubble Breakdown
Here's 16 of the most deserving at-large candidates the Committee will have to look at from every angle in determining who is the most deserving for the final four slots in the bracket.
Utah State (27-7, 14-2): Pros- won the WAC regular-season title, beat BYU and won 17 in a row including 16 straight in the WAC. Cons: lost at Utah and Long Beach State. Outlook: If the Selection Committee doesn't look at conference affiliation, the Aggies should be chosen as an at-large choice.
Minnesota (21-13, 9-9): Pros- won at Illinois, beat Butler, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Purdue. Cons- lost at Miami, Indiana and were swept by Michigan. Outlook: Beat Illinois head-to-head and advanced one game further than the Illini has them griping for an at-large spot over Illinois.
Clemson (21-10, 9-7): Pros- beat Butler, Maryland, Georgia Tech and swept Florida State. Cons- lost at Boston College and to North Carolina State in the ACC Tournament. Outlook: One of many ACC teams that are lucky the bubble is so weak this season.
Illinois (19-14, 10-8): Pros- won at Clemson, Vanderbilt, Michigan State and won two of three versus Wisconsin. Cons- losses to Utah, Bradley, Georgia, have three losing streaks of two games and two of three games. Outlook: More negatives than positives should have them not chosen as an at-large.
Wichita State (25-9, 12-6): Pros- runner-ups in the MWC regular-season and tournament, beat Northern Iowa. Cons- MWC was down, lost at Utah State in a Bracket Buster, lost at Drake and at Evansville who finished last in the MWC. Outlook: Losing practically all their big games this season gives them no chance at the bubble.
Mississippi State (23-11, 9-7): Pros- swept Mississippi, beat Old Dominion and Vanderbilt, won at Houston and played for the SEC Championship. Cons- lost to Rider and 3-5 in road games in the SEC. Outlook: The Bulldogs pass the eye-test and were a tenth of a second from winning the SEC; should be in.
Florida (21-12, 9-7): Pros- beat Florida State and Michigan State. Cons- lost to South Alabama and 3-5 in road games in the SEC. Outlook: The Gators probably didn't do enough down the stretch to get in the Dance.
Rhode Island (23-9, 9-7): Pros- 8-game winning streak, beat Oklahoma State and won at Dayton. Cons- lost at VCU, 1-6 versus teams ahead of them in the A-10 standings, and bad losses at St. Bonaventure and Massachusetts. Outlook: Probably sitting as the fifth or so team out of the NCAA Tournament.
Other bubble contenders include William & Mary (22-10, 12-6), Memphis (23-9, 13-3), UAB (23-8, 11-5), Mississippi (21-10, 9-7), Virginia Tech (23-8, 10-6), Seton Hall (19-12, 9-9), Dayton (20-12, 8-8), and Arizona State (22-10, 12-6). The favorite of these teams to get in is Virginia Tech, but don't be shocked if Seton Hall or Ole Miss get in. One thing is for sure there will be plenty of drama and hurt feelings when it comes to the last four teams in and last four teams out.
Tyrone Bowman - I'm 25, a recent Journalism graduate of Sacramento State, love the outdoors and am ultra-competitive. I thrive for perfection even though ...
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